A slower slaughter pace led USDA to lower its US beef production projections for both 2026 and 2027.
Lower output projections
The US Department of Agriculture's October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, released 16 October 2026, lowered its beef production estimates. The forecast is 24.802 billion pounds for 2026 and 24.675 billion pounds for 2027. The 2027 figure is 160 million pounds below the previous month's projection.
Slaughter pace and cattle supply
USDA attributes the 2026 revision to a slower pace of fed-cattle slaughter and slightly lighter anticipated carcasses late in the year. Its 2027 outlook also reflects lower-than-expected feeder placements. The report says higher expected imports of Mexican cattle through two reopened ports would offset only part of the domestic supply decline.